Fragile ceasefire

Finally the resolution 1701 was approved by all sides - it took 4 weeks and has left plenty of room for loopholes and flaws to justify future actions - and a ceasefire is on effect since yesterday. Still wonder what kind of ceasefire is on effect, when Israeli forces are still maintaining their air and sea blockades on Lebanon... The cessation of fire has been respected so far, but one has the impression it is hanging on a very thin thread. Each side is claiming victory, but as Hersh is saying on a new investigative piece on Lebanon, it seems this war has been sold to the US by Israel. Apparentely, this conflict had been planned by Israel and approved by the States several months ago.

"The Middle East expert said that the Administration had several reasons for supporting the Israeli bombing campaign. Within the State Department, it was seen as a way to strengthen the Lebanese government so that it could assert its authority over the south of the country, much of which is controlled by Hezbollah. He went on, "The White House was more focussed on stripping Hezbollah of its missiles, because, if there was to be a military option against Iran's nuclear facilities, it had to get rid of the weapons that Hezbollah could use in a potential retaliation at Israel. Bush wanted both. Bush was going after Iran, as part of the Axis of Evil, and its nuclear sites, and he was interested in going after Hezbollah as part of his interest in democratization, with Lebanon as one of the crown jewels of Middle East democracy."

Richard Armitage says that this should serve as a warning against any attack on Iran.

"The Israelis told us it would be a cheap war with many benefits," a U.S. government consultant with close ties to Israel said. "Why oppose it? We'll be able to hunt down and bomb missiles, tunnels, and bunkers from the air. It would be a demo for Iran."A Pentagon consultant said that the Bush White House "has been agitating for some time to find a reason for a preëmptive blow against Hezbollah."

He added, "It was our intent to have Hezbollah diminished, and now we have someone else doing it." (As this article went to press, the United Nations Security Council passed a ceasefire resolution, although it was unclear if it would change the situation on the ground.)

According to Richard Armitage, who served as Deputy Secretary of State in Bush's first term -- and who, in 2002, said that Hezbollah "may be the A team of terrorists" -- Israel's campaign in Lebanon, which has faced unexpected difficulties and widespread criticism, may, in the end, serve as a warning to the White House about Iran. "If the most dominant military force in the region -- the Israel Defense Forces -- can't pacify a country like Lebanon, with a population of four million, you should think carefully about taking that template to Iran, with strategic depth and a population of seventy million," Armitage said. "The only thing that the bombing has achieved so far is to unite the population against the Israelis."

Also in Israel, and according to the BBC, there is a "barrage of criticism" regarding the government's conduct on this conflict on mainly 3 particular situations, where the Israelis felt confused by their government's actions:

"Almost from the outset, the government's conduct of this conflict confused the Israeli public and confounded many of the country's most experienced defence experts.
There was the initial reliance upon air power to deal with the Hezbollah missile threat.
Then there was a series of ground incursions a short way into Lebanon, which produced fierce skirmishes but little change to the overall strategic picture.
Then, almost at the same time as the United Nations was putting the final touches to a new Security Council resolution to end the fighting, there was Israel's last-minute push northwards towards the Litani River. "


Still about Israel, W. sent me a piece of useful info about how powerful is the Israel lobby in Washington and how broad it is its force. It is a Harvard University paper about the pro-Israel strong presence on the US foreign policies. Interesting and mindblogging.

Peace!